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What we measured, including the parts that did not work and the mistakes we made measuring them.

Everything below is historical and hypothetical. It is not advice, not a recommendation, and not a promise about the future. Costs are charged inside every test: commissions, slippage and borrow fees. Position size is a flat $1,000 with no compounding. Where a rule is still traded by us, the exact filter and stop stay private — the phenomenon, the data and the method do not.

43,185 halt reopens: the short side survives, the long side does not

Updated September 2026 · US small caps · 2020-01 to 2026-08 · 1-minute bars

When a US stock moves far enough and fast enough, the exchange stops trading it for five minutes. That pause is mechanical, not a judgement, and everyone can see it happen. We wanted to know what the reopen is worth on each side, measured properly.

The data

Every limit-up LULD halt in the NYSE's own consolidated halt file from January 2020 to August 2026 — 73,190 halt records, 43,185 of them reopens we could match to 1-minute bars. Delisted tickers included, so nothing is flattered by survivorship. 0.3% charged per leg. In-sample 2020-2024; 2025-2026 held back and looked at once, at the end.

The short side

Shorting the reopen of the day's first limit-up halt, with a 10% stop, held to the close:

+$25per trade, $1,000 unit
49%win rate
6 / 6years positive
2,431events

It stays positive out of sample, and it survives having its three best trades removed. There is nothing clever in it: it is a fade of a forced, mechanical event.

The long side

The obvious-looking trade is the opposite one — buy the continuation after the second or third halt, because that is where the runners run. It loses in every form we could build:

VersionPer tradeWin rateYears positive
Long after halt #2+, simple stop−$2423%0 of 6
Structural stop, volatility trail, 1/3 partial at +50%−$2423%0 of 6
72 further configurations (entry halt #1, inter-halt interval, reopen jump size, time of day × six exits)0 passed

One slice looked alive: halt #2+ entered between 10:30 and 12:00 with a 25% stop, +$77 a trade, positive in all six years. Then we looked closer. Ten trades produce 92% of the profit and five of those ten are the same ticker on the same day. Remove the three best and half the total disappears. That is a lottery ticket wearing a strategy's clothes.

Two mistakes, ours

Look-ahead. Our first pass on the short side returned +14.3% per trade and 80% winners. A filter was reading the close of bar 1 and the high of bar 2 while the model entered at the open of bar 1. After the fix the filter did nothing at all, and the honest number was +6.4%. If a backtest hands you 80% winners, treat it as a bug report.
Stops that cannot fill. Our simulator filled every stop at the stop price. On a halted stock that is fiction: the reopen can print 20-50% past your stop and that is where you get out. We rewrote the fill logic so a gap through the stop fills at the reopen. That change alone turned several passing configurations into losers, on both sides.

What decides whether any of this is tradeable

Borrow. These are exactly the names brokers will not lend, or will lend at 0.2-1% a day. A live desk refused two of our four locate requests in one week. A backtest that does not remove the names you could not borrow, and does not charge for the rest, is measuring a market you cannot trade in. Paper accounts hide this completely: on paper, everything is easy to borrow.

The data, free

The NYSE publishes its consolidated halt file but nobody packages it into something you can use. Here it is cleaned: every halt from February 2019 to September 2026, one row per halt, with the times parsed to minutes, the duration computed and LULD pauses flagged. No sign-up, no attribution required — take it and run your own tests.

⬇ nyse_halts_2019_2026.csv — 73,189 halts, 8.7 MB

Columns: halt_date, symbol, name, exchange, reason, halt_time, resume_date, resume_time, halt_minute_utc, resume_minute_utc, is_luld, duration_min. Source: the NYSE's own file at nyse.com/api/trade-halts/historical/download.

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